Food security (FS) is a complex and multifaceted problem, influenced by several factors such as weather events, economic shocks, and natural disasters. Understanding the dynamics of food security is crucial for effective policymaking and humanitarian efforts. While conflicts and violent events increasingly stand out as key drivers of food crises[1], the depth of their impact remains largely underexplored. Examining the quantitative aspects of this impact is essential for developing more targeted interventions and strategies to address the complex interplay between conflict and food security. Existing research tends to be qualitative in nature (Kemmerling et al.2022; Brown et al. 2020; Brown et al. 2021), leaving a significant gap in understanding the quantitative aspects of how conflicts impact FS levels. By delving into quantitative analyses, we can not only enhance our comprehension of the magnitude of the problem but also pave the way for evidence-based decision-making in efforts to alleviate food insecurity in conflict-affected regions. Regarding the qualitative study of conflicts and FS, Kemmerling et al.(2022)[2] provided a comprehensive explanation on how violence and armed conflicts impact FS through destruction, displacement, financing of conflicts and food being used as a weapon. The authors call for better conflict data collection, and an increase in focus on the study of conflicts early warnings.

Prediction is a classic challenge in spatial statistics and the inclusion of spatial covariates can greatly improve predictive performance when incorporated into a model with latent spatial effects. It is desirable to develop flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities and interactions in the covariate structure. Machine learning models have been suggested in the spatial context, allowing for spatial dependence in the residuals, but fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we investigate a novel combination of a Gaussian process spatial model and a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) model. The computational burden of the approach is reduced by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) technique. We study the performance of the method via simulations and use the model to predict anthropometric responses, collected via household cluster samples in Kenya.

Droughts, with their increasing frequency of occurrence, continue to negatively affect livelihoods and elements at risk. For example, the 2011 in drought in east Africa has caused massive losses document to have cost the Kenyan economy over $12bn. With the foregoing, the demand for ex-ante drought monitoring systems is ever-increasing. The study uses 10 precipitation and vegetation variables that are lagged over 1, 2 and 3-month time-steps to predict drought situations. In the model space search for the most predictive artificial neural network (ANN) model, as opposed to the traditional greedy search for the most predictive variables, we use the General Additive Model (GAM) approach. Together with a set of assumptions, we thereby reduce the cardinality of the space of models. Even though we build a total of 102 GAM models, only 21 have R2 greater than 0.7 and are thus subjected to the ANN process. The ANN process itself uses the brute-force approach that automatically partitions the training data into 10 sub-samples, builds the ANN models in these samples and evaluates their performance using multiple metrics. The results show the superiority of 1-month lag of the variables as compared to longer time lags of 2 and 3 months. The champion ANN model recorded an R2 of 0.78 in model testing using the out-of-sample data. This illustrates its ability to be a good predictor of drought situations 1-month ahead. Investigated as a classifier, the champion has a modest accuracy of 66% and a multi-class area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 89.99%